As we move away from the warmer months of summer 2024, thanks to a summer intensified by the El Niño Phenomenon, the focus of our industry shifts towards the uncertain 2024, a year that promises a delicate balance between the challenges posed by the changing climate.
Goodbye to "El Niño", welcome "La Niña"
The year 2024 places us at a critical climatic juncture. "El Niño", the phenomenon that provided abundant winter rains from the Metropolitan Region southwards, begins its retreat between March and May, transitioning to "La Niña", which brings scarce rainfall and an increase in the frequency of frosts, a considerable challenge for fruit fields. Although this year "La Niña" is expected to be weak, its timing could adversely affect spring, a critical season for flowering and fruit setting.
The prediction of a winter with the necessary chill hours opens the door to a more uniform and promising bloom, especially for cherry trees. However, the forecast of scarce precipitation raises questions about water supply and its efficient management. In this context, strategic planning and proactive field management become paramount.
Frosts and their impact on agriculture
The implications of climate change add an additional layer of complexity to this scenario. Climate variability and extreme events, such as late frosts, demand special consideration in our crop strategies and water management.
Frosts represent one of the greatest climatic challenges for agriculture, with a profound impact on vital crops such as cherries, citrus fruits, avocados, vineyards, kiwis, blueberries, among others. These events not only threaten the viability of the current season but can also have lasting effects on the health and productivity of plants in the long term.
Frosts and cherry trees
Cherry trees are particularly susceptible to late frosts that occur during the spring, just when the trees are in bloom or beginning fruit development. Exposure to freezing temperatures during these critical periods can damage the flowers, reduce pollination, and consequently drastically reduce the harvest yield. Additionally, the young and growing tissue of cherry trees can suffer cold damage, affecting future production.
Frosts and citrus
Citrus fruits, including lemons, oranges, and mandarins, show a variety of responses to frosts, depending on the specific type and its growth stage. While mature plants can endure slightly below-zero temperatures, frosts can cause significant damage to the fruit and flowers, leading to considerable economic losses. The young shoots and leaves are particularly vulnerable, and the damage can limit the tree's capacity to produce in subsequent seasons.
Frosts and avocados
Avocados, known for their increasing popularity due to the global demand for “avocados,” are sensitive to frosts. Low temperatures can cause leaf drop, damage flowers and young fruit, and even result in branch death. This not only affects the current harvest yield but can also negatively impact growth and productivity in the following season.
Frosts and vineyards
Vines are equally vulnerable to frosts, particularly during bud break and the early development of the vine. Frosts can destroy young shoots, limit grape development and consequently affect both the quantity and quality of the wine harvest. Damage to the vines not only affects the current year's production but can also compromise the plant's health in the long term, impacting future harvests.
Fortunately, we are not alone
The year 2024 is shaping up to be a period of challenges and opportunities for the fruit industry. Anticipation, adaptation, and the adoption of advanced technologies will be key to navigating this scenario of climatic uncertainty. As we move towards an uncertain future, our ability to adapt and respond to the climate will not only define the success of the season but also reaffirm our commitment to sustainable agriculture, conscious of water conservation.
