The heat arrived earlier than usual, and many farmers are feeling the pressure of what's to come. It is not easy to plan for planting and irrigation when all indications suggest the weather will be more extreme and volatile. Are there certainties? Few, but experts have gathered data that provide insights into the upcoming season. In this article, we'll discuss projections for Chile, with a focus on key agricultural regions.
Current Situation
Forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and other international entities confirmed that December 2024 arrived with temperatures above normal in various areas of Chile. This trend, although more pronounced inland, was also noticeable in the mountains from the north down to southern sectors and even Patagonia.
In January and February, the central-south interior is also experiencing high temperature events, especially towards the Biobío and La Araucanía mountains. However, February could provide a slight reprieve, with temperatures dropping slightly, allowing for less extreme weather in those same areas.
Beyond Summer: The La Niña Factor
The recent announcement from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed the arrival of La Niña. This phenomenon involves cooling of the equatorial Pacific waters and often results in less precipitation for much of our territory. With available information, it is expected that La Niña will persist until the early autumn season of 2025, with close to a 60% probability.
Many remember other episodes of La Niña, but researchers indicate that this time it will not be as intense as in the past. Nevertheless, we cannot rule out its typical consequences in our region: rain fronts would be more blocked, and summer maximum temperatures might moderate somewhat in certain areas, though we are not talking about a drastic reduction.
For farmers, this scenario warns of drier seasons with the possibility that heat will not reach excessively high peaks throughout the summer. Still, uncertainty remains prevalent. The ocean took time to enter the La Niña phase, and climatic models do not always agree. Specifically, while there could be less precipitation than in a neutral year, this does not mean that rain will disappear completely. According to past years' experience, there are always specific moments of instability that can favor storms or isolated rainfalls.
Summer Precipitation: Where and How Much?
Regions from Biobío to the northern part of Magallanes are shaping up with a precipitation deficit during these months. It is expected that this scarcity will be even more noticeable in sectors of Los Lagos and Aysén, where the Pacific anticyclone would extend its influence and block or divert the fronts. How significant will this decrease be? Some specialists speak of a deficit of 50 millimeters or more in December, which for agricultural production could imply greater irrigation efforts.
Practical Recommendations for Agriculture
• Constant Monitoring: Do not rely solely on the seasonal forecast news. Examine weekly reports to adjust irrigation and fertilization.
• Crop Diversification: Assess more resilient alternatives for drier seasons.
• Irrigation Infrastructure: Inspect canals, gates, and drip systems in advance. Any defect is magnified when water demand is high.
• Fire Prevention: Secure firebreaks, remove dry weeds, and maintain adequate tools to respond to any heat source.
• Contingency Plan: Have a flexible work schedule. If the heat arrives early, it will be essential to organize harvest shifts well.
Attention to Frost Season 2025
As usual, this year looks challenging for Chilean agriculture. The summer of 2024-2025 is projected with very warm days and, in a significant part of the territory, a precipitation deficit. La Niña makes its appearance, but with uncertain magnitude that could result in less rain and slight relief in maximum temperatures, although not enough to rule out isolated heatwave events.
We are waiting for the frost projections for the autumn, winter, and spring seasons of 2025 and will share information as new data emerges. As always, it is important to anticipate and plan to have mitigation systems in place for these events that could seriously affect annual production projections.
